Just to forewarn any mathematicians out there, I'm more than likely going to butcher mathematical laws and theories. Just to forewarn any English and/or Writing majors out there, I'm probably going to butcher proper syntax and sentence structure trying to explain what I mean in regards to playing Fallout 2: A Post Nuclear Role Playing Game and various mathematical laws and theories.
Y'all've been warned.
Also this post turned into a rambling rant full of un/founded complaints.
Y'all've been doubley warned.
I've previously talked about my paranoia when it comes to dealing with chance and computer systems (although that was over four years ago. . .damn), but while playing Fallout 2, I've seriously begun the question the fairness of computer.
The main point that I'm coming to grips with, is that I feel that whatever equation/logarithm/program is being used in this game to determine hit percentages and/or actually hitting the target is, in non-scientific terms, seems like it's a bit fucked up. This isn't the first time I've felt this either, although that was previously with Final Fantasy Tactics Advance 2: Grimoire of the Rift. You know, maybe it is just me, but for the remainder of the article, let's pretend that it's not me.
Based on the Fallout Wiki page, the to-hit % is determined by the base % of that particular combat skill (melee, hand-to-hand, small guns, et cetera) which goes up against the target's AC (armor class). This makes sense, and I'm perfectly okay with this. My melee skill was at 90% and I was using the sharpened spear, as it was/is my strongest melee weapon. At the time when I became frustrated enough with my attacks which seemed to be missing a lot more than I felt that they should have been, I decided to log my % to hit, if I hit, and how much damage I was doing (which at the time also seemed to be on the low side for a sharpened spear which is supposed to do 4-12 damage (there is a good chance that I'm just not understanding some aspect of how the game determines damage output). I did write this information down for the next 182 of my attacks. During this time, I was in the Toxic Cave fighting both small geckos and golden geckos.
And before I start throwing more numbers around and (very probably) start using mathematical terms, let me say that I do know that when an attack says "60%" that that means the attack has a 60% chance of succeeding on that specific attack, not as an overall percentage. I know this is statistically independent from the next 60% attack. Yet I'm going to continue with the numbers. Because.
By far the most common percentage I attacked with was 60%, being 142 out of 182 of the attacks, which were performed with the sharpened spear (in case you'd forgotten) while standing in the adjacent hex-tile to the gecko (golden or otherwise). Of those 142 attacks, 85 were hits while 57 were misses, which comes out to 59.859%, which is essentially 60%. This doesn't really help my tinfoil hat case at all as this is all of the battles that I kept track of.
What I believe that is happening here is an example of the Law of Large Numbers, but on a slightly smaller scale. The Law of Large numbers "describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times" and as a result, "the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed." So this law says/proves that my attacks ended up averaging out to hitting 60% of the time, even though each attack % is only based on one attack and not the average number of successful attacks. Which while accurate, is frustrating when (in one battle in particular with a golden gecko) I hit only five times out of 15 attacks before I was killed (Hit/Miss: H-H-M-M-M-H-M-H-M-M-M-M-M-M-H-I Died). Sure it averages out, but missing six times in a row with 60% is a bit infuriating. Yes, it's still only 60% for each hit, not an average.
In another instance (after I had leveled up, was using an SMG, and had a base 91% in small guns), I had an 88% chance to hit (I was fighting against Wilders) and I missed three times in a row, which if I'm using geometric distribution (correctly and accurately), means that missing three time in a row with an 88% chance of success, is a 1:588 chance of occuring. In another fight (I forgot against whom I was fighting, but it was still with the SMG), my attacks were as follows:
- 62% = Miss
- 66% = Miss
- 62% = Miss
- 66% = Hit for 23 damage (crit)
- 95% = Miss
- 95% = Miss
- 95% = Hit for 14 damage (killed)
I mean yes, I killed the guy/thing in two hits, but I had to attack seven times in order to do so, with two misses with a 95% chance of success in a row. An example would be that in D&D, I would be able to hit the creature with a d20, unless I rolled a 1, and I rolled 1 twice in a row. It's entirely plausible (as I've seen one of the PC's role 4 or 6 at least three times in a row; but in that example, there were four other PC's to pick up the slack, and not one Vic with a knife since he won't use the god damn sharpened spear that I gave him and told him to use his strongest weapon) to roll the only number that will allow a miss twice in a row, it is however somewhat unlikely.
Another annoying instance that I only recorded on one account was doing possibly the least amount of damage with the sharpened spear, four attacks in a row. In this string of attacks, granted I did hit eight times in a row, but it was still frustrating watching my character deal such minimal damage while watching my own HP being whittled down to the point of being dead. I didn't even know that the sharpened spear could deal only 2 damage, again considering that it's damage output is 4-12, so I'll assume that the golden gecko has some type of damage reduction modifier. It's definitely times like this that I become paranoid that the game is playing against me and fudging my to-hit and damage rolls.
I have since stopped tracking my hits and misses as it became too cumbersome during battles and it seemed to drag the battles out just a little bit longer and all I wanted was to wait for the raiders to kill the molerats so I could start attacking them in order to collect their sweet, sweet lootz (Wow, look! A spear, two knives, a 10mm pistol, and 6 rounds of ammunition. This'll definitely score me some mad capz back in town! Lulz).
It's probably my own fault for only having a 4 charisma which brings up the cost of things, brings down the amount that I can get for selling goods, but I felt it made sense, that a 17 year old boy wouldn't have particularly great people skillz (STOP IT!) after living in/near a canyon (an arroyo, if you will) with his tribe for his whole life.
So about 12 hours in to Fallout 2, I think I'll keep on keeping on and hopefully I'll get the G.E.C.K. back to my people before they turn cannibal, or worse. That is, if I can make it through one fight (escape is even often impossible; "Damn it Vic, stop fighting the guy with a stick and help me kill his bastard with a shotgun!") towards the Vault City out in the east (Bend?).
~JWfW/JDub/Jaconian
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